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The Trade of The United States of America (2019)
1. US Trade with Major Countries in 2019
Below table 2's source is "The China Custom", and differnt from the table1,figures of US "Census Basia",
US Departmen of Commerce.
USA had recorded huge amount of trade deficit with China, every year. This is the cause why American has started the trade war against China. The American economy
has been declining for several decades, because the economic philosophy
of 'globalization'. USA believed it should keep within the border, the
most competitive economic sectors, for instance, finanse, airspace, car,
computor and IT. USA gave up steel industry, electronics , clothing, footware
etc.
It’s a central feature of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign ; “make
America great again”, But Trump has been not successful.
Some light industries came back a little, and workers of manufacturing
industries increased a little, but unemplayment ratio decreased to 3.5%,
at the end of 2019.
Although Trump often seems disconnected from reality, on this issue he
has a point. In 2019, USA decreased import and export very little. The
situation has not getting better.
The btrade war between USA and China is getting fierce.USA imported from
China,-16.2%. Because USA immposed hevy tax to China. China also decreased
import from USA -10.9%.
The imports from China should be included Honglong, because Hongkong has
been eepted heavy duty from USA, so Chines companies tried to eexport to
USA via Hong Kong, but number is so samll, only 5,279 million $ from Hong
Kong. But when we use the Chinese Statistics of Trade, Chinese governmennt
uses the direct export from China only, so its number is compatatively
small.
USA shifted import from China to other countries, for instance from Europe
and ASEAN.and India.
Table 1 US trade with majr countries (million$,%) depending upon US statistics.
|
|
2005 |
2010 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
18/17 |
19/18 |
World Ttl |
Export |
913,016 |
1,271,972 |
1,468,552 |
1,531,835 |
1,652,113 |
1,633,066 |
7.9 |
-1.2 |
|
Import |
1,695,820 |
1,938,950 |
2,207,195 |
2,358,789 |
2,561,667 |
2,519,049 |
8.6 |
-1.7 |
|
Balance |
-782,804 |
-666,978 |
-738,643 |
-826,954 |
-909,554 |
-885,983 |
10.0 |
-2.6 |
Japn |
Export |
54,817 |
61,472 |
63,811 |
68,298 |
75,958 |
75,321 |
11.2 |
-0.8 |
|
Import |
140,388 |
122,929 |
134,138 |
138,209 |
144,410 |
145,534 |
4.5 |
0.8 |
|
Balance |
-85,571 |
-61,457 |
-70,327 |
-69,911 |
-68,452 |
-70,213 |
-2.1 |
2.6 |
China |
Export |
41,874 |
93,059 |
115,991 |
130,280 |
120,829 |
107,719 |
-7.3 |
-10.9 |
|
Import |
244,699 |
366,126 |
463,089 |
506,038 |
540,431 |
452,700 |
6.8 |
-16.2 |
|
Balance |
-202,825 |
-273,067 |
-347,098 |
-375,758 |
-419,602 |
-344,981 |
11.7 |
-17.8 |
Hong Kong |
Export |
16,866 |
27,531 |
35,545 |
40,630 |
38,228 |
31,648 |
-5.9 |
-17.2 |
|
Import |
9,692 |
4,696 |
7,783 |
7,775 |
6,805 |
5,279 |
-12.5 |
-22.4 |
|
Balance |
7,174 |
22,835 |
27,762 |
32,855 |
31,423 |
26,369 |
-4.4 |
-16.1 |
China+HK |
Export |
58,740 |
120,590 |
151,536 |
170,910 |
159,057 |
139,367 |
-6.9 |
-12.4 |
|
Import |
254,391 |
370,822 |
470,872 |
513,813 |
547,236 |
457,979 |
6.5 |
-16.3 |
|
Balance |
|
|
-319,517 |
-342,903 |
-388,179 |
-318612 |
13.2 |
-100.0 |
Korea |
Export |
28,639 |
40,082 |
42,914 |
49,283 |
57,617 |
57,887 |
16.9 |
0.5 |
|
Import |
44,217 |
49,762 |
70,389 |
71,810 |
75,011 |
78,089 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
|
Balance |
-15,578 |
-9,680 |
-27,475 |
-22,527 |
-17,394 |
-20,202 |
-22.8 |
16.1 |
Taiwan |
Export |
22,794 |
26,975 |
26,546 |
26,294 |
31,168 |
31,836 |
18.5 |
2.1 |
|
Import |
35,350 |
36,016 |
39,198 |
42,442 |
45,750 |
54,298 |
7.8 |
18.7 |
|
Balance |
-12,556 |
-9,041 |
-12,652 |
-16,148 |
-14,582 |
-22,462 |
-9.7 |
54.0 |
Singapore |
Export |
20,755 |
29,079 |
26,447 |
29,314 |
32,393 |
31,269 |
10.5 |
-3.5 |
|
Import |
15,557 |
18,454 |
17,784 |
19,322 |
26,414 |
26,094 |
36.7 |
-1.2 |
|
Balance |
5,198 |
10,625 |
8,663 |
9,992 |
5,979 |
5,175 |
-40.2 |
-13.4 |
Indonesia |
Export |
3,054 |
6,948 |
6,024 |
6,864 |
8,171 |
7,733 |
19.0 |
-5.4 |
|
Import |
12,014 |
16,478 |
19,184 |
20,205 |
20,829 |
20,147 |
3.1 |
-3.3 |
|
Balance |
-8,960 |
-9,530 |
-13,160 |
-13,341 |
-12,658 |
-12,414 |
-5.1 |
-1.9 |
Malaysia |
Export |
10,461 |
14,080 |
11,774 |
12,872 |
12,952 |
13,192 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
|
Import |
33,685 |
25,901 |
36,607 |
37,369 |
39,354 |
40,567 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
|
Balance |
-23,224 |
-11,821 |
-24,820 |
-24,497 |
-26,402 |
#REF! |
7.8 |
#REF! |
Thailand |
Export |
7,257 |
8,976 |
10,501 |
11,033 |
12,521 |
13,299 |
13.5 |
6.2 |
|
Import |
19,890 |
22,694 |
29,484 |
31,109 |
31,863 |
33,447 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
|
Balance |
-12,633 |
-13,717 |
-18,983 |
-20,075 |
-19,342 |
-20,148 |
-3.7 |
4.2 |
Philippine |
Export |
6,895 |
7,377 |
8,194 |
8,451 |
8,716 |
8,642 |
3.1 |
-0.8 |
|
Import |
9,250 |
7,892 |
10,042 |
11,623 |
12,592 |
12,778 |
8.3 |
1.5 |
|
Balance |
-2,355 |
-515 |
-1,849 |
-3,172 |
-3,875 |
-4,136 |
22.2 |
6.7 |
ASEAN 5 |
Export |
41,562 |
59,119 |
54,783 |
60,119 |
66,072 |
65,528 |
9.9 |
-0.8 |
|
Import |
90,397 |
91,419 |
113,102 |
119,628 |
131,050 |
133,033 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
|
Balance |
-48,834 |
-32,300 |
-58,319 |
-59,509 |
-64,978 |
-67,505 |
9.2 |
3.9 |
India |
Export |
8,014 |
19,345 |
21,692 |
25,683 |
33,567 |
34,536 |
30.7 |
2.9 |
|
Import |
18,896 |
29,683 |
46,117 |
48,643 |
54,460 |
57,762 |
12.0 |
6.1 |
|
Balance |
-10,882 |
-10,338 |
-24,425 |
-22,960 |
-20,893 |
-23,226 |
-9.0 |
11.2 |
Australia |
Export |
15,536 |
21,720 |
22,225 |
24,624 |
25,547 |
26,228 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
|
Import |
7,454 |
8,815 |
9,634 |
10,192 |
10,290 |
11,018 |
1.0 |
7.1 |
|
Balance |
8,082 |
12,905 |
12,591 |
14,432 |
15,257 |
15,210 |
5.7 |
-0.3 |
Canada |
Export |
212,340 |
250,283 |
267,235 |
283,070 |
300,158 |
293,301 |
6.0 |
-2.3 |
|
Import |
294,216 |
281,822 |
283,538 |
305,292 |
325,017 |
325,761 |
6.5 |
0.2 |
|
Balance |
-81,876 |
-31,539 |
-16,303 |
-22,222 |
-24,859 |
-32,460 |
11.9 |
30.6 |
Mexico |
Export |
120,444 |
163,757 |
230,520 |
244,018 |
265,999 |
256,860 |
9.0 |
-3.4 |
|
Import |
173,771 |
232,804 |
299,852 |
318,489 |
352,583 |
364,461 |
10.7 |
3.4 |
|
Balance |
-53,327 |
-69,047 |
-69,332 |
-74,471 |
-86,584 |
-107,601 |
16.3 |
24.3 |
Brazil |
Export |
15,343 |
35,348 |
30,139 |
37,369 |
39,461 |
42,716 |
5.6 |
8.2 |
|
Import |
24,572 |
24,200 |
24,609 |
27,942 |
30,152 |
30,806 |
7.9 |
2.2 |
|
Balance |
-9,229 |
11,148 |
5,530 |
9,427 |
9,309 |
11,910 |
-1.3 |
27.9 |
Saudi Arabia |
Export |
6,903 |
11,462 |
18,007 |
16,327 |
13,601 |
14,349 |
-16.7 |
5.5 |
|
Import |
27,204 |
31,485 |
16,988 |
18,915 |
24,124 |
13,451 |
27.5 |
-44.2 |
|
Balance |
-20,301 |
-20,023 |
1,019 |
-2,588 |
-10,523 |
898 |
306.6 |
-108.5 |
France |
Export |
22,612 |
27,353 |
31,300 |
33,689 |
36,749 |
37,883 |
9.1 |
3.1 |
|
Import |
34,312 |
38,817 |
47,045 |
49,290 |
52,834 |
57,903 |
7.2 |
9.6 |
|
Balance |
-11,700 |
-11,464 |
-15,745 |
-15,601 |
-16,085 |
-20,020 |
3.1 |
24.5 |
Germany |
Export |
34,874 |
48,482 |
49,540 |
54,114 |
57,779 |
60,064 |
6.8 |
4.0 |
|
Import |
85,733 |
83,505 |
114,556 |
117,922 |
125,206 |
127,804 |
6.2 |
2.1 |
|
Balance |
-50,859 |
-35,023 |
-65,016 |
-63,808 |
-67,427 |
-67,740 |
5.7 |
0.5 |
Italy |
Export |
11,627 |
14,393 |
16,777 |
18,466 |
22,925 |
23,882 |
24.1 |
4.2 |
|
Import |
31,293 |
28,797 |
45,471 |
50,076 |
54,951 |
57,496 |
9.7 |
4.6 |
|
Balance |
-19,666 |
-14,404 |
-28,694 |
-31,610 |
-32,026 |
-33,614 |
1.3 |
5.0 |
UK |
Export |
38,870 |
49,080 |
56,566 |
66,698 |
69,664 |
69,078 |
4.4 |
-0.8 |
|
Import |
51,826 |
52553 |
54,940 |
53,910 |
61,461 |
63,795 |
14.0 |
3.8 |
|
Balance |
-12,956 |
-3,473 |
1,626 |
12,788 |
8,203 |
|
-35.9 |
-100.0 |
Russia |
Export |
3,962 |
5,994 |
5,831 |
7,003 |
6,658 |
5,785 |
-4.9 |
-13.1 |
|
Import |
16,307 |
25,691 |
14,542 |
17,055 |
20,858 |
22,260 |
22.3 |
6.7 |
|
Balance |
-12,344 |
-19,697 |
-8,711 |
-10,053 |
-14,200 |
-16,475 |
41.3 |
16.0 |
Vietnam |
Export |
1,193 |
3,706 |
10,098 |
8,134 |
9,676 |
10,860 |
19.0 |
12.2 |
|
Import |
6,631 |
14,868 |
42,086 |
46,477 |
49,159 |
66,610 |
5.8 |
35.5 |
|
Balance |
-5,438 |
-11,162 |
-31,987 |
-38,343 |
-39,483 |
-55,749 |
3.0 |
41.2 |
|
Export |
22,926 |
26,090 |
29,374 |
32,509 |
34,852 |
38,123 |
7.2 |
9.4 |
Euro |
Import |
51,901 |
58,542 |
86,519 |
94,115 |
109,531 |
113,245 |
16.4 |
3.4 |
|
Balance |
-28,975 |
-32,452 |
-57,145 |
-61,606 |
-74,679 |
-75,122 |
21.2 |
0.6 |
USA Census Statistics (USA)
Table 2-1 China's Export to USA (million$,% FOB
|
|
2010 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
I |
Live animals, fish, dairy |
1,963 |
2,103 |
2,006 |
2,007 |
2,060 |
1,619 |
-4.6 |
0.0 |
2.6 |
-21.4 |
II |
Vegetable products |
989 |
1,442 |
1,578 |
1,594 |
1,535 |
1,328 |
9.5 |
1.0 |
-3.7 |
-13.5 |
III |
Animal, vegetable oil |
57 |
86 |
76 |
84 |
88 |
87 |
-12.2 |
11.2 |
4.7 |
-1.2 |
IV |
Beverages, tabacco |
2,690 |
3,584 |
3,572 |
3,828 |
4,389 |
3,243 |
-0.3 |
7.2 |
14.7 |
-26.1 |
V |
Mineral, ores, oils |
1,229 |
1,336 |
1,587 |
1,623 |
1,706 |
1,252 |
18.8 |
2.2 |
5.1 |
-26.6 |
VI |
Chemicals, fertilizers |
9,155 |
12,549 |
11,830 |
13,947 |
16,734 |
11,369 |
-5.7 |
17.9 |
20.0 |
-32.1 |
VII |
Plastics, rubber |
10,482 |
17,990 |
16,315 |
18,535 |
21,985 |
19,417 |
-9.3 |
13.6 |
18.6 |
-11.7 |
VIII |
Leather, skin |
5,593 |
7,939 |
6,490 |
6,824 |
7,129 |
5,370 |
-18.3 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
-24.7 |
IX |
Wood,cork, charcoal |
2,766 |
4,103 |
4,116 |
3,987 |
4,286 |
3,302 |
0.3 |
-3.1 |
7.5 |
-22.9 |
X |
Pulp, paper |
2,438 |
4,548 |
3,720 |
4,139 |
4,788 |
4,572 |
-18.2 |
11.3 |
15.7 |
-4.5 |
XI |
Textile, clothing, silk |
31,444 |
44,774 |
42,116 |
42,446 |
45,810 |
42,623 |
-5.9 |
0.8 |
7.9 |
-7.0 |
XII |
Footware, umbrellas |
13,317 |
18,486 |
15,816 |
15,963 |
16,681 |
16,161 |
-14.4 |
0.9 |
4.5 |
-3.1 |
XIII |
Stone, glass, ceramic |
3,839 |
8,433 |
6,400 |
7,338 |
8,706 |
7,085 |
-24.1 |
14.7 |
18.6 |
-18.6 |
XIV |
Jewerry, pearl |
2,054 |
4,207 |
3,724 |
3,587 |
3,140 |
3,079 |
-11.5 |
-3.7 |
-12.5 |
-1.9 |
XV |
Base metals |
15,021 |
23,206 |
19,685 |
22,511 |
24,744 |
21,126 |
-15.2 |
14.4 |
9.9 |
-14.6 |
72 |
Iron & Steel |
958 |
1,495 |
536 |
598 |
673 |
508 |
-64.2 |
11.6 |
12.6 |
-24.5 |
XVI |
Machinery, Electronics |
132,874 |
179,533 |
172,440 |
198,539 |
222,188 |
192,607 |
-4.0 |
15.1 |
11.9 |
-13.3 |
84 |
Machinery & parts |
71,633 |
84,352 |
79,376 |
91,645 |
102,817 |
86,465 |
-5.9 |
15.5 |
12.2 |
-15.9 |
85 |
Electrical machinery, parts |
61,241 |
95,180 |
93,064 |
106,894 |
119,372 |
106,142 |
-2.2 |
14.9 |
11.7 |
-11.1 |
XVII |
Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels |
10,438 |
16,955 |
16,804 |
19,684 |
23,001 |
17,406 |
-0.9 |
17.1 |
16.9 |
-24.3 |
XVIII |
Optical, clocks, musical insr |
7,658 |
11,005 |
10,878 |
10,640 |
11,530 |
14,298 |
-1.1 |
-2.2 |
8.4 |
24.0 |
XIX |
Arms, amunition |
61 |
109 |
88 |
82 |
97 |
83 |
|
|
|
-14.5 |
XX |
Miscellaneous |
29,047 |
47,025 |
45,352 |
51,034 |
56,289 |
50,558 |
-3.6 |
12.5 |
10.3 |
-10.2 |
XXI |
Works of art, antiques |
39 |
121 |
55 |
40 |
71 |
76 |
|
|
|
7.6 |
XXII |
Commodities not classified |
151 |
6 |
436 |
1,324 |
1,405 |
2,012 |
|
|
|
43.2 |
|
Total |
283,304 |
409,538 |
385,085 |
429,755 |
478,364 |
418,673 |
-6.0 |
11.6 |
11.3 |
-12.5 |
I |
Live animals, fish, dairy |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
II |
Vegetable products |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
III |
Animal, vegetable oil |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
IV |
Beverages, tabacco |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
|
|
|
|
V |
Mineral, ores, oils |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
VI |
Chemicals, fertilizers |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
|
|
|
|
VII |
Plastics, rubber |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
|
|
|
|
VIII |
Leather, skin |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
|
|
|
|
IX |
Wood,cork, charcoal |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
|
|
|
|
X |
Pulp, paper |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
|
|
|
XI |
Textile, clothing, silk |
11.1 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
9.9 |
9.6 |
10.2 |
|
|
|
|
XII |
Footware, umbrellas |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
|
|
|
|
XIII |
Stone, glass, ceramic |
1.4 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
|
|
|
|
XIV |
Jewerry, pearl |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
|
|
|
XV |
Base metals |
5.3 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
|
|
|
|
72 |
Iron & Steel |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
XVI |
Machinery, Electronics |
46.9 |
43.8 |
44.8 |
46.2 |
46.4 |
46.0 |
|
|
|
|
84 |
Machinery & parts |
25.3 |
20.6 |
20.6 |
21.3 |
21.5 |
20.7 |
|
|
|
|
85 |
Electrical machinery, parts |
21.6 |
23.2 |
24.2 |
24.9 |
25.0 |
25.4 |
|
|
|
|
XVII |
Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
XVIII |
Optical, clocks, musical insr |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
|
|
|
|
XIX |
Arms, amunition |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
XX |
Miscellaneous |
10.3 |
11.5 |
11.8 |
11.9 |
11.8 |
12.1 |
|
|
|
|
XXI |
Works of art, antiques |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
XXII |
Commodities not classified |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
China Trade Statistics
Table 2-2 China'sImport from USA (million$,%, CIF)
I |
Live animals, fish, dairy |
1,475 |
2,030 |
2,782 |
3,056 |
2,253 |
2,124 |
9.9 |
-26.3 |
-5.7 |
II |
Vegetable products |
12,354 |
16,423 |
16,650 |
16,962 |
9,499 |
8,526 |
1.9 |
-44.0 |
-10.2 |
III |
Animal, vegetable oil |
280 |
68 |
149 |
139 |
106 |
97 |
-7.2 |
-23.5 |
-8.1 |
IV |
Beverages, tabacco |
1,557 |
3,641 |
2,624 |
1,768 |
2,336 |
1,901 |
-32.6 |
32.1 |
-18.6 |
V |
Mineral, ores, oils |
3,294 |
4,568 |
3,840 |
9,045 |
11,991 |
4,661 |
135.5 |
32.6 |
-61.1 |
VI |
Chemicals, fertilizers |
10,903 |
12,656 |
12,530 |
14,577 |
16,487 |
15,279 |
16.3 |
13.1 |
-7.3 |
VII |
Plastics, rubber |
7,387 |
7,442 |
7,153 |
8,147 |
8,244 |
7,045 |
13.9 |
1.2 |
-14.5 |
VIII |
Leather, skin |
1,101 |
1,671 |
1,285 |
1,258 |
977 |
666 |
-2.1 |
-22.3 |
-31.8 |
IX |
Wood,cork, charcoal |
1,186 |
2,221 |
2,516 |
3,070 |
3,082 |
1,580 |
22.0 |
0.4 |
-48.7 |
X |
Pulp, paper |
4,496 |
5,309 |
5,064 |
5,742 |
5,019 |
3,681 |
13.4 |
-12.6 |
-26.6 |
XI |
Textile, clothing, silk |
3,058 |
1,982 |
1,277 |
1,841 |
1,889 |
1,367 |
44.2 |
2.6 |
-27.6 |
XII |
Footware, umbrellas |
92 |
114 |
126 |
116 |
176 |
263 |
-7.3 |
51.5 |
49.0 |
XIII |
Stone, glass, ceramic |
882 |
1,167 |
1,289 |
1,254 |
1,408 |
1,456 |
-2.8 |
12.3 |
3.4 |
XIV |
Jewerry, pearl |
259 |
5,996 |
2,694 |
5,289 |
4,423 |
651 |
96.3 |
-16.4 |
-85.3 |
XV |
Base metals |
6,505 |
5,759 |
4,593 |
5,471 |
5,699 |
4,301 |
19.1 |
4.2 |
-24.5 |
72 |
Iron & Steel |
939 |
285 |
225 |
369 |
422 |
277 |
64.0 |
14.4 |
-34.5 |
XVI |
Machinery, Electronics |
28,721 |
35,423 |
30,360 |
33,877 |
38,030 |
37,590 |
11.6 |
12.3 |
-1.2 |
84 |
Machinery & parts |
13,569 |
15,826 |
14,504 |
16,494 |
18,307 |
17,362 |
13.7 |
11.0 |
-5.2 |
85 |
Electrical machinery, parts |
15,152 |
19,597 |
15,855 |
17,383 |
19,722 |
20,229 |
9.6 |
13.5 |
2.6 |
XVII |
Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels |
10,426 |
30,261 |
27,345 |
29,280 |
29,227 |
17,860 |
7.1 |
-0.2 |
-38.9 |
XVIII |
Optical, clocks, musical insr |
7,008 |
11,343 |
11,173 |
11,757 |
13,219 |
12,390 |
5.2 |
12.4 |
-6.3 |
XIX |
Arms, amunition |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
XX |
Miscellaneous |
302 |
605 |
564 |
537 |
628 |
568 |
-4.7 |
16.8 |
-9.4 |
XXI |
Works of art, antiques |
4 |
16 |
20 |
11 |
27 |
63 |
|
|
|
XXII |
Commodities not classified |
745 |
42 |
367 |
745 |
377 |
642 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
102,036 |
148,737 |
134,402 |
153,943 |
155,097 |
122,714 |
14.5 |
0.7 |
-20.9 |
I |
Live animals, fish, dairy |
1.4 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
|
|
|
II |
Vegetable products |
12.1 |
11.0 |
12.4 |
11.0 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
|
|
|
III |
Animal, vegetable oil |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
IV |
Beverages, tabacco |
1.5 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
|
|
V |
Mineral, ores, oils |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
5.9 |
7.7 |
3.8 |
|
|
|
VI |
Chemicals, fertilizers |
10.7 |
8.5 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
10.6 |
12.5 |
|
|
|
VII |
Plastics, rubber |
7.2 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
|
|
|
VIII |
Leather, skin |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
IX |
Wood,cork, charcoal |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
|
|
|
X |
Pulp, paper |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
|
|
|
XI |
Textile, clothing, silk |
3.0 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
|
|
|
XII |
Footware, umbrellas |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
XIII |
Stone, glass, ceramic |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
|
|
|
XIV |
Jewerry, pearl |
0.3 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
XV |
Base metals |
6.4 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
72 |
Iron & Steel |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
XVI |
Machinery, Electronics |
28.1 |
23.8 |
22.6 |
22.0 |
24.5 |
30.6 |
|
|
|
84 |
Machinery & parts |
13.3 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
11.8 |
14.1 |
|
|
|
85 |
Electrical machinery, parts |
14.8 |
13.2 |
11.8 |
11.3 |
12.7 |
16.5 |
|
|
|
XVII |
Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels |
10.2 |
20.3 |
20.3 |
19.0 |
18.8 |
14.6 |
|
|
|
XVIII |
Optical, clocks, musical insr |
6.9 |
7.6 |
8.3 |
7.6 |
8.5 |
10.1 |
|
|
|
XIX |
Arms, amunition |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
XX |
Miscellaneous |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
XXI |
Works of art, antiques |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
XXII |
Commodities not classified |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
In his recent book "Economics Rules," Harvard economist Dani Rodrik laments how economists often portray
a public consensus while disagreeing strongly in private. In effect, economists
behave like scientists behind closed doors, but as preachers when dealing
with the public.
Nowhere is this evangelism clearer than on the issue of trade. Ask any
economist what issue they agree on, and the first answer you’re likely to hear is “free trade is good.” The general public
disagrees vehemently, but economists are almost unanimous on this point.
But look at actual economics research, and you will find a very different
picture. The most recent example is a paper by celebrated labor economists
David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, titled “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes
in Trade.” The study shows that increased trade with China caused severe and permanent
harm to many American workers:
Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force
participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining
elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences.
Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income.
At the national level, employment has fallen in U.S. industries more exposed
to import competition...but offsetting employment gains in other industries
have yet to materialize.
Autor, et al. show powerful evidence that industries and regions that have
been more exposed to Chinese import competition since 2000 -- the year
China joined the World Trade Organization -- have been hit hard and have
not recovered. Workers in these industries and regions don't go on to better
jobs, or even similar jobs in different industries. Instead, they shuffle
from low-paid job to low-paid job, never recovering the prosperity they
had before Chinese competition hit. Many of them end up on welfare. This
is very different from earlier decades, when workers who lost their jobs
to import competition usually went into higher-productivity industries,
to the benefit of almost everyone.
In other words, the public might have been wrong about free trade in the
1980s and 1990s, but things have changed. Popular opinion seems to be exactly right about the effect of trade with China -- it has killed jobs and damaged
the lives of many, many Americans. Economists may blithely declare that
free trade is wonderful, but our best researchers have now shown that public
misgivings about these smooth assurances have been completely justified.
Why are economists so willing to declare to the world that free trade is
good, even after reading papers like the one by Autor et al.? Part of the
problem is the definition of “good.” According to most models of trade,
reducing trade barriers raises efficiency -- which is to say, total gross
domestic product. But efficiency says nothing about fairness, and almost any model of trade will show that some people,
industries and regions lose out. If most Americans experience slight gains
from lower import prices, and a few lose their livelihoods and have to
go on welfare, economists call that a “good” outcome, because they are
so focused on the concept of efficiency. But because the public cares about
a lot more than efficiency, the job losses in industries and regions knocked
out by China since 2000 have made economists seem increasingly callous
and out of touch.
But this is only part of the problem. Economists are also stubbornly unwilling
to question their benchmark theories, even when the evidence presents a
challenge to these theories. The fact that Autor et al. find total national
employment declining in response to trade with China should be cause for
concern. Standard trade models, especially the simple ones taught in Econ
101, predict that this shouldn’t have happened. Autor et al. sternly rebuke
the economics profession for relying too much on theory, and not enough
on evidence, when it comes to the issue of trade:
We argue that having failed to anticipate how significant the dislocations
from trade might be, it is incumbent on the economics literature to more
convincingly estimate gains from trade, such that the case for free trade
is not based on theory alone, but on a foundation of evidence.
The authors suggest that real-world economies may simply be much worse
at adjusting to big changes than most economic models assume. It is expensive
and time-consuming for workers to train for new jobs and to move to new
locations. It also takes time and money for businesses to figure out how
to change their business models in response to the new landscape presented
by a global economy with China in it. These adjustment costs might overwhelm
the gains from trade.
In the case of China, Autor et al.’s warning may come too late. China’s
economy is slowing and its costs are rising rapidly. No new prospective
trade partners will be able to replicate anything close to the China shock. In other
words, the unique problems created by trade with China might have been
a one-off event. But economists should still re-evaluate their benchmark
theories, and ease up in their adamant rhetoric in favor of free trade.
Table USA Trade (Census Basis) million$
|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
20115 |
11/00 |
12/11 |
13/12 |
14/13 |
15/41 |
World Ttl |
Export |
1,288,699 |
1,499,240 |
1,561,690 |
1,592,784 |
1,632,639 |
1,513,888 |
16.3 |
4.2 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
-7.3 |
|
Import |
1,934,555 |
2,239,886 |
2,303,784 |
2,294,453 |
2,374,101 |
2,272,821 |
15.8 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
3.5 |
-4.3 |
|
Balance |
-645,856 |
-740,646 |
-742,095 |
-701,669 |
-741,462 |
-758,933 |
14.7 |
0.2 |
-5.4 |
5.7 |
2.4 |
Japn |
Export |
60,486 |
65,800 |
69,964 |
65,206 |
66,827 |
62,472 |
8.8 |
6.3 |
-6.8 |
2.5 |
-6.5 |
|
Import |
120,545 |
128,928 |
146,438 |
138,573 |
134,004 |
131,120 |
7.0 |
13.6 |
-5.4 |
-3.3 |
-2.2 |
|
Balance |
-60,060 |
-63,128 |
-76,474 |
-73,368 |
-67,177 |
-68,648 |
5.1 |
21.1 |
-4.1 |
-8.4 |
2.2 |
China |
Export |
91,881 |
104,122 |
110,516 |
121,736 |
123,676 |
116,186 |
13.3 |
6.1 |
10.2 |
1.6 |
-6.1 |
|
Import |
364,944 |
399,371 |
425,626 |
440,448 |
466,754 |
481,881 |
9.4 |
6.6 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
|
Balance |
-273,063 |
-295,250 |
-315,111 |
-318,711 |
-343,078 |
-365,695 |
8.1 |
6.7 |
1.1 |
7.6 |
6.6 |
Korea |
Export |
38,846 |
43,462 |
42,265 |
41,715 |
44,471 |
43,499 |
11.9 |
-2.8 |
-1.3 |
6.6 |
-2.2 |
|
Import |
48,875 |
56,661 |
58,902 |
62,388 |
69,518 |
71,827 |
15.9 |
4.0 |
5.9 |
11.4 |
3.3 |
|
Balance |
-10,029 |
-13,200 |
-16,636 |
-20,674 |
-25,047 |
-28,328 |
31.6 |
26.0 |
24.3 |
21.2 |
13.1 |
Taiwan |
Export |
26,043 |
25,933 |
24,338 |
25,472 |
26,670 |
25,929 |
-0.4 |
-6.2 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
-2.8 |
|
Import |
35,846 |
41,405 |
38,861 |
37,940 |
40,518 |
40,708 |
15.5 |
-6.1 |
-2.4 |
6.8 |
0.5 |
|
Balance |
-9,803 |
-15,473 |
-14,523 |
-12,468 |
-13,848 |
-14,779 |
57.8 |
-6.1 |
-14.2 |
11.1 |
6.7 |
Hong Kong |
Export |
26,570 |
36,399 |
37,471 |
42,342 |
40,858 |
37,174 |
37.0 |
2.9 |
13.0 |
-3.5 |
-9.0 |
|
Import |
4,296 |
4,410 |
5,456 |
5,684 |
5,869 |
6,703 |
2.6 |
23.7 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
14.2 |
|
Balance |
22,274 |
31,989 |
32,015 |
36,658 |
34,989 |
30,471 |
43.6 |
0.1 |
14.5 |
-4.6 |
-12.9 |
Singapore |
Export |
29,017 |
31,282 |
30,526 |
30,672 |
30,237 |
28,657 |
7.8 |
-2.4 |
0.5 |
-1.4 |
-5.2 |
|
Import |
17,427 |
19,116 |
20,232 |
17,843 |
16,426 |
18,235 |
9.7 |
5.8 |
-11.8 |
-7.9 |
11.0 |
|
Balance |
11,590 |
12,167 |
10,294 |
12,829 |
13,811 |
10,422 |
5.0 |
-15.4 |
24.6 |
7.7 |
-24.5 |
Indonesia |
Export |
6,946 |
7,421 |
7,999 |
9,100 |
8,284 |
7,123 |
6.8 |
7.8 |
13.8 |
-9.0 |
-14.0 |
|
Import |
16,478 |
19,111 |
18,002 |
18,877 |
19,361 |
19,575 |
16.0 |
-5.8 |
4.9 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
|
Balance |
-9,532 |
-11,690 |
-10,004 |
-9,777 |
-11,077 |
-12,452 |
22.6 |
-14.4 |
-2.3 |
13.3 |
12.4 |
Malaysia |
Export |
14,080 |
14,264 |
12,818 |
13,007 |
13,086 |
12,293 |
1.3 |
-10.1 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
-6.1 |
|
Import |
25,900 |
25,777 |
25,935 |
27,289 |
30,420 |
33,828 |
-0.5 |
0.6 |
5.2 |
11.5 |
11.2 |
|
Balance |
-11,821 |
-11,513 |
-13,117 |
-14,282 |
-17,334 |
-21,535 |
-2.6 |
13.9 |
8.9 |
21.4 |
24.2 |
Thailand |
Export |
8,977 |
10,930 |
10,888 |
11,797 |
11,810 |
11,247 |
21.8 |
-0.4 |
8.4 |
0.1 |
-4.8 |
|
Import |
22,693 |
24,833 |
26,072 |
26,173 |
27,123 |
28,595 |
9.4 |
5.0 |
0.4 |
3.6 |
5.4 |
|
Balance |
-13,716 |
-13,903 |
-15,185 |
-14,376 |
-15,313 |
-17,348 |
1.4 |
9.2 |
-5.3 |
6.5 |
13.3 |
Philippine |
Export |
7,376 |
7,728 |
8,087 |
8,404 |
8,453 |
7,909 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
0.6 |
-6.4 |
|
Import |
7,982 |
9,145 |
9,581 |
9,269 |
10,144 |
10,200 |
14.6 |
4.8 |
-3.3 |
9.4 |
0.6 |
|
Balance |
-606 |
-1,417 |
-1,493 |
-865 |
-1,691 |
-2,291 |
133.9 |
5.4 |
-42.0 |
95.4 |
35.5 |
Vietnam |
Export |
3,709 |
4,315 |
4,623 |
5,036 |
11,136 |
8,317 |
16.3 |
7.1 |
8.9 |
121.1 |
-25.3 |
|
Import |
14,868 |
17,488 |
20,268 |
24,657 |
30,219 |
15,564 |
17.6 |
15.9 |
21.7 |
22.6 |
-48.5 |
|
Balance |
-11,159 |
-13,172 |
-15,645 |
-19,620 |
-19,083 |
-7,247 |
18.0 |
18.8 |
25.4 |
-2.7 |
-62.0 |
ASEAN 6 |
Export |
70,105 |
75,941 |
74,940 |
78,016 |
83,006 |
75,546 |
8.3 |
-1.3 |
4.1 |
6.4 |
-9.0 |
|
Import |
105,349 |
115,469 |
120,090 |
124,108 |
133,693 |
125,997 |
9.6 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
7.7 |
-5.8 |
|
Balance |
-35,244 |
-39,528 |
-45,149 |
-46,092 |
-50,687 |
-50,451 |
12.2 |
14.2 |
2.1 |
10.0 |
-0.5 |
India |
Export |
19,250 |
21,542 |
22,106 |
21,842 |
21,606 |
21,530 |
11.9 |
2.6 |
-1.2 |
-1.1 |
-0.4 |
|
Import |
29,533 |
36,155 |
40,513 |
41,845 |
45,244 |
44,741 |
22.4 |
12.1 |
3.3 |
8.1 |
-1.1 |
|
Balance |
-10,283 |
-14,612 |
-18,407 |
-20,003 |
-23,638 |
-23,211 |
42.1 |
26.0 |
8.7 |
18.2 |
-1.8 |
Australia |
Export |
21,798 |
27,626 |
31,160 |
26,130 |
26,582 |
25,038 |
26.7 |
12.8 |
-16.1 |
1.7 |
-5.8 |
|
Import |
8,583 |
10,243 |
9,567 |
9,272 |
10,672 |
10,862 |
19.3 |
-6.6 |
-3.1 |
15.1 |
1.8 |
|
Balance |
13,215 |
17,383 |
21,594 |
16,858 |
15,910 |
14,176 |
31.5 |
24.2 |
-21.9 |
-5.6 |
-10.9 |
Canada |
Export |
249,105 |
281,292 |
292,651 |
301,610 |
312,421 |
280,327 |
12.9 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
-10.3 |
|
Import |
277,648 |
315,325 |
324,264 |
332,553 |
347,798 |
295,191 |
13.6 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
4.6 |
-15.1 |
|
Balance |
-28,543 |
-34,033 |
-31,614 |
-30,943 |
-35,377 |
-14,864 |
19.2 |
-7.1 |
-2.1 |
14.3 |
-58.0 |
Mexico |
Export |
163,473 |
196,287 |
215,907 |
226,079 |
240,249 |
236,377 |
20.1 |
10.0 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
-1.6 |
|
Import |
229,908 |
262,873 |
277,694 |
280,529 |
294,074 |
294,741 |
14.3 |
5.6 |
1.0 |
4.8 |
0.2 |
|
Balance |
-66,435 |
-66,586 |
-61,787 |
-54,450 |
-53,825 |
-58,364 |
0.2 |
-7.2 |
-11.9 |
-1.1 |
8.4 |
Brazil |
Export |
35,425 |
43,019 |
43,807 |
44,119 |
42,429 |
31,666 |
21.4 |
1.8 |
0.7 |
-3.8 |
-25.4 |
|
Import |
23,976 |
31,737 |
32,126 |
27,634 |
30,537 |
27,405 |
32.4 |
1.2 |
-14.0 |
10.5 |
-10.3 |
|
Balance |
11,449 |
11,282 |
11,681 |
16,485 |
11,892 |
4,261 |
-1.5 |
3.5 |
41.1 |
-27.9 |
-64.2 |
Saudi Arabia |
Export |
11,556 |
13,924 |
17,967 |
18,957 |
18,705 |
19,690 |
20.5 |
29.0 |
5.5 |
-1.3 |
5.3 |
|
Import |
31,413 |
47,476 |
55,667 |
51,807 |
47,041 |
22,081 |
51.1 |
17.3 |
-6.9 |
-9.2 |
-53.1 |
|
Balance |
-19,857 |
-33,553 |
-37,700 |
-32,850 |
-28,336 |
-2,391 |
69.0 |
12.4 |
-12.9 |
-13.7 |
-91.6 |
Nigeria |
Export |
4,068 |
4,905 |
5,030 |
6,392 |
5,968 |
3,410 |
20.6 |
2.5 |
27.1 |
-6.6 |
-42.9 |
|
Import |
30,516 |
33,854 |
19,014 |
11,724 |
3,839 |
1,961 |
10.9 |
-43.8 |
-38.3 |
-67.3 |
-48.9 |
|
Balance |
-26,448 |
-28,949 |
-13,985 |
-5,332 |
2,129 |
1,449 |
9.5 |
-51.7 |
-61.9 |
-139.9 |
-31.9 |
Euro Area |
Export |
176,587 |
196,310 |
193,965 |
201,392 |
205,456 |
201,392 |
11.2 |
-1.2 |
3.8 |
2.0 |
-2.0 |
|
Import |
242,215 |
285,023 |
294,445 |
331,598 |
326,994 |
331,598 |
17.7 |
3.3 |
12.6 |
-1.4 |
1.4 |
|
Balance |
-65,629 |
-88,712 |
-100,481 |
-130,206 |
-121,538 |
-130,206 |
35.2 |
13.3 |
29.6 |
-6.7 |
7.1 |
France |
Export |
26,969 |
27,857 |
30,811 |
31,745 |
31,301 |
30,077 |
3.3 |
10.6 |
3.0 |
-1.4 |
-3.9 |
|
Import |
38,355 |
40,049 |
41,647 |
45,708 |
46,874 |
47,644 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
9.8 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
|
Balance |
-11,386 |
-12,192 |
-10,835 |
-13,963 |
-15,573 |
-17,567 |
7.1 |
-11.1 |
28.9 |
11.5 |
12.8 |
Germany |
Export |
48,161 |
49,294 |
48,801 |
47,362 |
49,363 |
49,947 |
2.4 |
-1.0 |
-2.9 |
4.2 |
1.2 |
|
Import |
82,429 |
98,684 |
109,226 |
114,345 |
123,260 |
124,139 |
19.7 |
10.7 |
4.7 |
7.8 |
0.7 |
|
Balance |
-34,268 |
-49,390 |
-60,425 |
-66,983 |
-73,897 |
-74,192 |
44.1 |
22.3 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
0.4 |
Italy |
Export |
14,219 |
16,038 |
16,097 |
16,755 |
16,968 |
16,249 |
12.8 |
0.4 |
4.1 |
1.3 |
-4.2 |
|
Import |
28,505 |
33,974 |
36,965 |
38,692 |
42,115 |
44,005 |
19.2 |
8.8 |
4.7 |
8.8 |
4.5 |
|
Balance |
-14,286 |
-17,936 |
-20,868 |
-21,937 |
-25,147 |
-27,756 |
25.6 |
16.3 |
5.1 |
14.6 |
10.4 |
Netherland |
Export |
34,939 |
42,227 |
40,619 |
42,572 |
43,075 |
40,706 |
20.9 |
-3.8 |
4.8 |
1.2 |
-5.5 |
|
Import |
19,055 |
23,455 |
22,260 |
18,231 |
20,818 |
16,752 |
23.1 |
-5.1 |
-18.1 |
14.2 |
-19.5 |
|
Balance |
15,884 |
18,772 |
18,359 |
24,341 |
22,257 |
23,954 |
18.2 |
-2.2 |
32.6 |
-8.6 |
7.6 |
Spain |
Export |
10,178 |
11,032 |
9,552 |
10,241 |
10,200 |
10,249 |
8.4 |
-13.4 |
7.2 |
-0.4 |
0.5 |
|
Import |
8,553 |
11,018 |
11,768 |
11,677 |
14,416 |
14,090 |
28.8 |
6.8 |
-0.8 |
23.5 |
-2.3 |
|
Balance |
1,625 |
14 |
-2,216 |
-1,436 |
-4,216 |
-3,841 |
-99.2 |
|
-35.2 |
193.6 |
-8.9 |
UK |
Export |
48,414 |
56,033 |
54,860 |
47,353 |
53,823 |
56,353 |
15.7 |
-2.1 |
-13.7 |
13.7 |
4.7 |
|
Import |
49,775 |
51,263 |
55,003 |
52,817 |
54,392 |
57,805 |
3.0 |
7.3 |
-4.0 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
|
Balance |
-1,362 |
4,771 |
-144 |
-5,464 |
-569 |
-1,452 |
|
|
|
|
|
Russia |
Export |
6,006 |
8,318 |
10,695 |
11,137 |
10,753 |
7,087 |
38.5 |
28.6 |
4.1 |
-3.4 |
-34.1 |
|
Import |
25,691 |
34,619 |
29,379 |
27,086 |
23,653 |
16,562 |
34.8 |
-15.1 |
-7.8 |
-12.7 |
-30.0 |
|
Balance |
-19,685 |
-26,301 |
-18,684 |
-15,950 |
-12,900 |
-9,475 |
33.6 |
-29.0 |
-14.6 |
-19.1 |
-26.6 |
Reference
March 16 Economics and Trade Bulletin
Conclusions
• In 2014, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased by
7.5 percent year-on-year to $342.6 billion, a new record. In the
first eight months of 2015, the U.S. trade deficit in goods with
China totaled $237.3 billion, a 9.7 percent increase year-onyear.
Over the same period, U.S. deficit with China in advanced
technology products reached $72.7 billion. China stalled
on liberalizing key sectors in which the United States is competitive
globally, such as services.
• As a consequence of domestic economic weakness, China’s stated
rebalancing policies appear to have been put on hold. Instead,
fearful of a protracted slowdown, the Chinese government
has been intervening in various sectors of the economy,
including the stock market. However, the government’s intervention,
which failed to arrest the stock market’s fall and stabilize
the economy, undermined public confidence in the ability
of China’s policymakers to successfully manage the economy.
• Although it has been ten years since China moved the renminbi
(RMB) to a managed float, the government continues to
intervene in foreign exchange markets. For the first half of
2015 the government has prevented the RMB from depreciating,
seeking its inclusion in the International Monetary
Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies.
However, on August 11, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly
devalued the RMB, giving rise to fears among observers
and policymakers that the economic slowdown was becoming
entrenched.
• The U.S. government’s efforts to address tensions in the U.S.-
China relationship through bilateral dialogue continue to yield
limited results. The latest Strategic and Economic Dialogue
concluded with some progress on environmental and financial
issues, but reached an impasse in addressing fundamental
strategic and economic issues such as cybersecurity, anticorruption
cooperation, and investment barriers to foreign
firms in many industries.
• President Xi came to the United States in September on a
state visit, and although Presidents Obama and Xi discussed
several issues of concern, including commercial cyber espionage
by Chinese actors, there were few significant breakthroughs.
Among outcomes were the statements by the two presidents
that neither country will engage in cyber espionage (though
China continued to deny any involvement in commercial cyber
theft) and commitments to enhance cooperation on combatting
climate change.
• China’s adherence to the World Trade Organization principles
and its Protocol of Accession remains spotty. Most recently, the
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has engaged China
over a program that provides export subsidies considered illegal
by the World Trade Organization to businesses in seven
critical industries.
• China launched two new development institutions: the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development
Bank. In addition to boosting China’s economy by creating export
opportunities for its companies, the new banks aim to extend
China’s role in the international economic order, potentially
challenging established multilateral development institutions.
Section 2: Foreign Investment Climate in China
Although China has been a major destination for global foreign
direct investment (FDI) over the past decade, it maintains the most
restrictive FDI regime among all Organization for Economic Co-Operation
and Development (OECD) and G20 countries, according to
the OECD. The U.S. Department of State estimates that in addition
to over 1,000 rules and regulatory documents related to FDI
in China issued by central government ministries, local legislatures
and governments also enact their own restrictive rules and regulations
on foreign investments in their jurisdictions. Further, Chinese
government administrators seek to ensure inbound FDI supports
industrial policy goals—designed to bolster the development
of domestic industries and the creation of national champions—by
identifying different industries as desirable for or restricted from
foreign investment. Taken together, these laws and policies—and
uncertain application thereof—create a complicated, opaque, and
unfavorable environment for foreign investment.
As a result of this restrictive legal and regulatory environment,
the foreign investment climate in China is deteriorating. Though
the majority of U.S. firms still consider China a profitable market,
optimism about future operations and profitability there is waning.
Foreign companies felt the least welcome in sectors where China’s
industrial policies favor domestic companies and authorities impose
localization requirements. Some of the problems highlighted by foreign
companies are the lack of market access in certain sectors and
the conditioning of market access on the transfer of technology, intellectual
property (IP), or know-how to local competitors.
China primarily maintains national-level market access restrictions
through a Foreign Investment Catalogue, though local governments
frequently employ region- or industry-specific Catalogues, further
restricting access. Though Chinese authorities released an updated
version of the Foreign Investment Catalogue in 2015 that reduced
the number of sectors where foreign investment is restricted and
prohibited, industries the Chinese government has long sought to
nurture as national champions—such as automobiles and healthcare—
saw heightened restrictions.
VerDate Sep